Will consumer spending exceed its pre-corona level to make up for the lockdown? I doubt it.
Lockdowns force households to save. However, consumers won’t be able to spend money at crowded spaces as easily as they did before the virus.
Furthermore, a lot of consumption is lost forever and cannot be replaced. Just think about things like haircuts, restaurant visits, massages, and housecleaning.
I still think a swoosh-shaped recovery is possible. Yet I don’t expect the economy will bounce back above its pre-corona level thanks to pent up demand.