Category: English

Fiscal burden sharing between EU member states is not the solution to the corona crisis. The ECB needs to do its job.

Fiscal burden sharing poisons Europe

Who should pay for the corona crisis in the EU?

Philipp Heimberger discusses the possibility of a European recovery fund, funded by a common debt instrument.

On the Macro Musings podcast, Ashoka Mody says1 countries like Italy need fiscal transfers from other member states.

But fiscal burden sharing is a toxic idea, as Dutch finance minister Wopke Hoekstra demonstrated.

What’s the real problem?

Italy is 135% of GDP. Spain and France are 100% of GDP, so three of the big Eurozone countries are not going to be able to do fiscal stimulus of 5, 7, 10% of GDP, which is basically what is going to be needed for this crisis. We’re going to need enormous amount of fiscal stimulus. Maybe Germany will do that. In the US, with this two trillion, they’re already at about 9% of GDP, and I expect that it will go up even more, for a number of reasons, but Italy cannot do anything close to that, or Spain cannot do anything close to that.

Ashoka Mody

Clearly, the problem is not the level of debt. The U.S. has a higher debt to GDP ratio than France and Spain.

The problem is the refusal of the ECB to close the sovereign spreads. As I write this, the German 10 year bond yield is -0.461. The Italian 10 year bond yield is 2.182.

How do we get out of this mess?

Every country should do whatever it takes to save its economy. Bail out businesses, pay unemployment benefits.

The expenditures can be funded by bonds. The ECB should keep the spreads low. That means buying whatever it takes.

Secondly, the ECB is once again neglecting its primary objective. Oil prices and unemployment point to low nominal aggregate demand. Without income support to households, it’s unclear how the ECB can achieve its inflation target.

So the ECB needs to do helicopter money drops, as suggested by Eric Lonergan, Frances Coppola, Positive Money Europe, and me.

But what does the ECB do? The Governing Council has never even discussed helicopter money, let alone planned to implement it!

This is not just incompetence, this is financial terrorism.

Frankfurt delenda est.

Pent up demand after corona lockdown will be very limited

Will consumer spending exceed its pre-corona level to make up for the lockdown? I doubt it.

Lockdowns force households to save. However, consumers won’t be able to spend money at crowded spaces1 as easily as they did before the virus.

Furthermore, a lot of consumption is lost forever and cannot be replaced. Just think about things like haircuts, restaurant visits, massages, and housecleaning.

I still think a swoosh-shaped recovery is possible2. Yet I don’t expect the economy will bounce back above its pre-corona level thanks to pent up demand.

NICO

Where are the acronyms of the corona crisis?

During the Global Financial Crisis, we learned about CDO, CDS, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBS, NINJA…

Today? Nothing.

Why? Because the crisis didn’t originate in the financial system, but in the sudden shutdown of whole industries.

If you like acronyms to describe what’s going on, I want to coin NICO: no income, cash out.

Comments on ‘Macroeconomic implications of Covid-19: can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?’

This paper by Guerrieri, Lorenzoni, Straub and Werning (GLSW) looks at the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19.

The authors argue that

  • the economic shocks associated to Covid-191 can cause a fall in aggregate demand that exceeds the original shock
  • fiscal stimulus is less effective than usual because some sectors are shut down
  • monetary policy can prevent firm exits and is more effective
  • the best policy is to close contact-intensive sectors and to provide insurance payments to affected workers

My summary of the GLSW model (their paper is 37 pages long, so obviously I’m oversimplifying and probably missing important things!):

Continue reading “Comments on ‘Macroeconomic implications of Covid-19: can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?’”

Interlocking balance sheets and the corona-induced sudden stop

This post highlights the financial problems caused by (the reaction to) the coronavirus. I look at the balance sheets and cash flows of five sectors. The five sectors are (1) businesses that continue operations, (2) businesses that are closed due to the coronavirus, (3) households, (4) the government and (5) banks.

Key findings:

  • Businesses face a cash crunch
  • The net worth of households falls by about 50% of GDP due to lower stock prices
  • Each month of lockdown costs about 2% of annual GDP
  • The accrual of fixed costs while revenue is down is the fundamental problem of the corona crisis
  • Loans and tax deferrals can prevent bankruptcies for a while
  • However, loans and tax deferrals don’t protect businesses and households against insolvency
  • Therefore, the government should transfer resources to those hit by the crisis
  • Fiscal consolidation after the health crisis is over imperils the recovery
Continue reading “Interlocking balance sheets and the corona-induced sudden stop”

If you’re betting on herd immunity (bad idea!), do it in a controlled way

To be clear: exposing people to a deadly virus in order to achieve herd immunity is insane. Policy makers and doctors who seriously considered this option should be tried for crimes against humanity. Millions would die, even with the best medical care.

Herd immunity violates the Nuremberg Code

Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst wanted1 to keep schools open so children would have herd immunity by the time there’s a second wave of the virus.

Such a “strategy” violates several points of the Nuremberg Code:

Continue reading “If you’re betting on herd immunity (bad idea!), do it in a controlled way”

Helicopter money as a weapon in the war against the coronavirus crisis

This post was originally intended to be published elsewhere, but ultimately wasn’t. Note that this article is only about helicopter money. However, governments and central banks urgently need to do much more. The state should bail out all businesses. Businesses should hold on to their employees even if they cannot work so the economy can have a V-shaped recovery. The government should pay the workers. I also have other proposals for the ECB, see here and here.

Continue reading “Helicopter money as a weapon in the war against the coronavirus crisis”

How the ECB can stop the coronavirus crisis overnight

I haven’t posted on the blog in a while, but I’m very active on Twitter.

Here’s my 3 point plan for the ECB:

(1) The ECB should issue bonds, which are risk free (the ECB cannot default on euro liabilities). It should buy every sovereign bond trading at a yield of 40 basis points or more above the yield on the ECB bonds.

(2) The ECB should set the interest rate on TLTROs at -5% until six months after the coronavirus public health crisis is over.

(3) The ECB should do helicopter money as soon as businesses are operational again, because the outlook for price stability is bleak.

Coronavirus economics: dangerous hacks versus credible voices

The coronavirus pandemic once again demonstrates that a lot of prominent economic commentors are dangerous. Their recommendations will amplify the economic shock caused by the virus.

People who claim that

  • the coronavirus is not the job of central banks
  • this is mainly a supply chain issue
  • we have to beware of the long term consequences of doing fiscal/monetary stimulus now
  • we should continue business as usual

are spreading falsehoods.

Don’t listen to that guy!

Here is a selection of people who do grasp the importance of acting now in order to prevent an economic meltdown later.

Scott Sumner and David Beckworth: How central banks should respond to the coronavirus threat (podcast)

John Cochrane: Corona virus monetary policy

Skanda Amarnath: